Struck by lightning does for probability what Freakonomics did for economics. Packed full of real-world examples of how to properly think of and use probability.
One example is utility functions -- for example choosing between two options. Option A has a probability of 75% of giving you 500 (subjective) points of happiness or utility. Option B has a 25% chance of giving you 2000 points of happiness. Which one should you choose? Answer: .75 x 500 = a value of 375 for option A and .25 x 2000 = 500 for option B. So Option B is the best.
Another example -- should you undergo an intrusive and expensive lifestyle change to reduce your chance of a heart attack by 50%? On the face of it, yes. But if you look at the probabilities, if you have a 1 in 10000 chance of having a heart attack in the next year, the probability is .01 %. Undergoing the process would decrease your chance of having a heart attack to .005%. Is there a real difference in the two values when you look at them this way? Is it worth undergoing the change?
Recommended read.
http://www.amazon.com/Struck-Lightning-Curious-World-Probabilities/dp/0309097347/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1208959063&sr=8-1
